Oil extends four weeks of gains amid tight supply

May 23,2022

Oil extends four weeks of gains amid tight supply

Oil extended four weeks of gains amid tight fuel supplies and a weaker dollar, though elevated prices are fanning concerns that the world economy may be heading for a recession.

West Texas Intermediate futures topped $111 a barrel while gasoline and diesel prices have rallied to records ahead of the start of the US driving season in about a week. The prompt spread for Brent crude jumped to a seven-week high, with crude supplies constricted by the boycott of Russian shipments, and product markets strained as refining capacity fails to keep up with rebounding demand.
The rise in energy costs has contributed to rampant inflation, prompting central banks to raise rates and stoking investor concern growth will slow. The Biden administration is considering tapping a little-used emergency diesel fuel reserve to mitigate the supply crunch amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a White House official.
The head of the International Energy Agency and India’s oil minister, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, issued warnings on the risk of high prices.

“We may see prices even going higher, being much more volatile and becoming a major risk for recession for the global economy,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg TV from Davos.
His sentiments were echoed by Indian oil and gas minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, who said that several of his country’s neighbors are in “severe dire straits” because of rallying prices. “Let’s make no mistake: oil at $110 a barrel constitutes a challenge for the entire world.”

Oil has surged this year on rising demand and the complex global fallout from Russia’s invasion. Money managers have also boosted bullish crude bets.

In remarks reported at the weekend, Saudi Arabia signaled it will continue to support Russia’s role in the OPEC+ group of producers, undermining US-led efforts to isolate Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, the Financial Times said. The kingdom was hoping to work out an agreement with OPEC+ which includes Russia, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the newspaper.

Weaker Dollar
An added lift for crude came from a weakening dollar, which makes the commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies. The greenback was lower on Monday following a drop of 1.4% last week, the most since November 2020.
At the same time, China has imposed a series of painful lockdowns to quell Covid-19 outbreaks, hurting Asia’s largest economy. In Shanghai, officials have laid out the criteria to categorize parts of the commercial hub as low-risk for Covid-19 as they look to end a two-month lockdown, with no new cases outside quarantine being reported. Beijing, however, reported a record number of cases, reviving concern that the capital may face a lockdown.

Prices:

WTI for July delivery rose 1% to $111.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:37 p.m. in London.
Brent for July settlement added 0.8% to $113.48 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Oil markets remain in backwardation, a bullish pattern that’s marked by near-term prices trading above longer-dated ones. The difference between WTI’s two nearest December contracts, for this year and in 2023, was near $13 a barrel, up from about $11 a barrel a month ago.